The following is a report filed by Chris Lafakis at Moody's Financial Research institute. It's the latest analysis on the fiscal solvency of the City of Kingston and surrounding metro area.
RECENT PERFORMANCE A handful of economic indicators suggest that the end of Kingston’s recession is near. Payrolls are expanding for the first time since 2006 thanks to a moderation in service job losses and hiring at the State University of New York at New Paltz. The unemployment rate has tenuously stabilized near 8%, and the local labor force is once again expanding. Moreover, the nascent rise in industrial production foreshadows that manufacturing employers might soon stop laying off workers.
SUNY NEW PALTZ New York’s dire fiscal situation will have little impact on SUNY New Paltz. In April, the university proposed $6 million in deficit reductions, with nearly two-thirds of the amount coming from non-instructional areas such as increased revenue sources and cost savings. The only casualty of the recession will be the university’s nursing program, which will be phased out. While 70 university jobs will be lost, this represents less than 3% of the more than 3,000 employees.
SUNY New Paltz will remain an important growth driver for Kingston Metro Area in the long term. The university welcomed 1,775 new students this spring. An increased volume of applicants has allowed the university to be more selective and enhance the quality of its students. Further, thanks to the university, state government worker earnings, which are higher on average than the state and national averages, support consumer industries in the Kingston Metro Area. HOUSING
While far from well-functioning, the local housing market is much improved. A 75% surge in housing affordability since the fourth quarter of 2005 has helped to stabilize housing demand. Home sales have bottomed, and house prices have been relatively stable after declining by 23% over two years. While residential construction remains depressed, it is not expected to gather momentum until the second half of next year. Recent improvement suggests that consumers are gaining confidence in the housing market. If this is the case, it would mark a significant shift in consumer psychology; consumers’ anticipation that home prices will continue to fall has been the main reason that home prices have been falling. A self-reinforcing improvement in consumer confidence could cause home prices to rise sooner than expected.
GROWTH IMPEDIMENTS
The Kingston Metro Area’s long-term economic potential is limited by several constraints Most notably, its above-average living costs en-courage emigration and discourage immigration. Housing is historically much less affordable in the Kingston Metro Area than it is nationally or in other upstate New York metro areas. High housing costs have limited immigration, thereby restraining population growth. Moreover, the metro area lacks dynamic growth drivers. While SUNY New Paltz provides a stream of educated workers, these workers are leaving the area because of the lack of job opportunities. This becomes self-reinforcing; employers choose not to locate in this area because they cannot find skilled employees, and skilled employees leave because they cannot find well-paying jobs.

FORECAST
However, Kingston is on track to emerge from recession by year’s end. The labor market will stabilize mid way through 2010, fueled by healthcare job creation. Kingston Metro Area is expected to recover all of the jobs lost during the recession by the first quarter of 2012, two quarters earlier than the nation. In the long term, the Catskills casino and resort project will bolster the local economy by creating jobs and spurring consumer spending. High exposure to a growing healthcare industry will also benefit the local economy. Nonetheless, the Kingston Metro Area will grow at a below-average pace over the forecast horizon be-cause of its flagging demographic trends.
TOP PRIVATE EMPLOYERS
State University of New York at New Paltz 1,000+
Benedictine Hospital 500-999
Eastern New York Correctional Facility 500-999
Kingston Hospital 500-999
Northeast Center for Special Care 500-999
Ulster-Greene ARC 500-999
United Cerebral Palsy of Ulster County 500-999
United Health Group 500-999
Ametek-Rotron 200-499
Fair-Rite Products 200-499
Bank of America: Information Solutions 200-499
Gateway Community Industries 200-499
Hannaford 200-499
Hudson Valley Resort & Spa 200-499
Mid-Hudson Family Health Institute 200-499
Mohonk Mountain House 200-499
Pilot Industries 200-499
Shawangunk Correctional Facility 200-499
Ten Broeck Commons 200-499
Ulster Correctional Facility 200-499